Building Information Filtering Networks with Topological Constraints: Algorithms and Applications

We propose a new methodology for learning the structure of sparse networks from data; in doing so we adopt a dual perspective where we consider networks both as weighted graphs and as simplicial complexes. The proposed learning methodology belongs to the family of preferential attachment algorithms, where a network is extended by iteratively adding new vertices. In the conventional preferential attachment algorithm a new vertex is added to the network by adding a single edge to another existing vertex; in our approach a new vertex is added to a set of vertices by adding one or more new simplices to the simplicial complex. We propose the use of a score function to quantify the strength of the association between the new vertex and the attachment points. The methodology performs a greedy optimisation of the total score by selecting, at each step, the new vertex and the attachment points that maximise the gain in the score. Sparsity is enforced by restricting the space of the feasible configurations through the imposition of topological constraints on the candidate networks; the constraint is fulfilled by allowing only topological operations that are invariant with respect to the required property. For instance, if the topological constraint requires the constructed network to be be planar, then only planarity-invariant operations are allowed; if the constraint is that the network must be a clique forest, then only simplicial vertices can be added. At each step of the algorithm, the vertex to be added and the attachment points are those that provide the maximum increase in score while maintaining the topological constraints. As a concrete but general realisation we propose the clique forest as a possible topological structure for the representation of sparse networks, and we allow to specify further constraints such as the allowed range of clique sizes and the saturation of the attachment points. In this thesis we originally introduce the Maximally Filtered Clique Forest (MFCF) algorithm: the MFCF builds a clique forest by repeated application of a suitably invariant operation that we call Clique Expansion operator and adds vertices according to a strategy that greedily maximises the gain in a local score function. The gains produced by the Clique Expansion operator can be validated in a number of ways, including statistical testing, cross-validation or value thresholding. The algorithm does not prescribe a specific form for the gain function, but allows the use of any number of gain functions as long as they are consistent with the Clique Expansion operator. We describe several examples of gain functions suited to different problems. As a specific practical realisation we study the extraction of planar networks with the Triangulated Maximally Filtered Graph (TMFG). The TMFG, in its simplest form, is a specialised version of the MFCF, but it can be made more powerful by allowing the use of specialised planarity invariant operators that are not based on the Clique Expansion operator. We provide applications to two well known applied problems: the Maximum Weight Planar Subgraph Problem (MWPSP) and the Covariance Selection problem. With regards to the Covariance Selection problem we compare our results to the state of the art solution (the Graphical Lasso) and we highlight the benefits of our methodology. Finally, we study the geometry of clique trees as simplicial complexes and note how the statistics based on cliques and separators provides information equivalent to the one that can be achieved by means of homological methods, such as the analysis of Betti numbers, however with our approach being computationally more efficient and intuitively simpler. Finally, we use the geometric tools developed to provide a possible methodology for inferring the size of a dataset generated by a factor model. As an example we show that our tools provide a solution for inferring the size of a dataset generated by a factor model

Parsimonious modeling with information filtering networks

We introduce a methodology to construct parsimonious probabilistic models. This method makes use of information filtering networks to produce a robust estimate of the global sparse inverse covariance from a simple sum of local inverse covariances computed on small subparts of the network. Being based on local and low-dimensional inversions, this method is computationally very efficient and statistically robust, even for the estimation of inverse covariance of high-dimensional, noisy, and short time series. Applied to financial data our method results are computationally more efficient than state-of-the-art methodologies such as Glasso producing, in a fraction of the computation time, models that can have equivalent or better performances but with a sparser inference structure. We also discuss performances with sparse factor models where we notice that relative performances decrease with the number of factors. The local nature of this approach allows us to perform computations in parallel and provides a tool for dynamical adaptation by partial updating when the properties of some variables change without the need of recomputing the whole model. This makes this approach particularly suitable to handle big data sets with large numbers of variables. Examples of practical application for forecasting, stress testing, and risk allocation in financial systems are also provided